Deglobalization is the Path to Decentralization
Donald Trump has swept the swing states, making a remarkable comeback, and he’s already championing tariffs again. This isn’t the beginning of deglobalization; that shift started long before his election in 2016. However, his victory represents a significant milestone — a turning point marking a world that will be fundamentally different.
Does this mean the global economy is moving toward inefficiency? Not necessarily. In the long run, globalization, as long as it’s still an efficient state, remains the prevailing trend. The more the current trajectory leans toward deglobalization, the more disruptive changes is on the horizon that will reshape the landscape.
Imagine a world where the U.S. completely bans high-tech immigration and imposes a 100% tariff on China, stifling the flow of cheap labor and goods. Picture China being cut off from the SWIFT international payment network. Does this mean trade between the two countries ceases altogether? Hardly. Tariffs can be applied to goods, but services traded on the Internet across borders are impossible to restrict.
In this scenario, a Chinese worker might still do remote work for a U.S. company. Even if barriers are in place, tools like VPNs enable this connection. Since China is excluded from SWIFT, the U.S. company could pay the worker in cryptocurrency. The worker, in turn, heavily relies on tools like OpenAI to perform their job, paying for these services in cryptocurrency as well. This creates a closed economic loop — albeit with one critical question: how does this worker use cryptocurrency to meet everyday needs like buying groceries?
Here’s where it gets interesting. Cryptocurrency is currently prohibited in China, but the country is grappling with prolonged economic stagnation and weak domestic demand. If a group of people suddenly has spending power through cryptocurrency, the government may see an opportunity to stimulate the economy by allowing them to convert or spend it directly within China’s markets. This creates a pathway for more individuals to sustain themselves, driving a small yet growing economic shift.
Cryptocurrency has struggled to find a foothold in a unified, stable world where free-flowing fiat currencies dominate through networks like SWIFT. However, in a fragmented global economy with mounting restrictions, cryptocurrencies could become a major global payment method, finally achieving widespread adoption.
